Keynote: Trends in Econometrics

18 11 2011

Image of red starSpeaker: David Hendry, University of Oxford

Full title: Current & Future Trends in Econometrics

Image of David HendryTo watch Prof. Hendry’s keynote lecture, click on the “play” button below.

A virtual issue of journal articles has been released to coincide with Prof. Hendry’s keynote; the virtual issue on econometrics is available now.

We are also publishing two invited commentaries in response to the keynote, by Neil Ericsson, Federal Reserve, and Katarina Juselius, University of Copenhagen.

As ever, we welcome your thoughtful responses to the keynote and to the commentaries in the comments box below.

Watch keynote now – click on “play”

On a mobile device you may find that this link works better instead: http://bcove.me/73zzz66e.

Watch the Question & Answer session

On a mobile device you may find that this link works better instead: http://bcove.me/nj88xa97

Or Listen Now

If you are having problems with the video player, you can listen to the keynote and the subsequent Q&A sessions by using the audio players below. The slides are available for download at the foot of this post.

Keynote

On a mobile device, follow this link instead.

Q&A Session

Professor Hendry address three specific questions, as follows:

  1. Do you think it is fundamentally pessimistic to say that all macroeconomic theories are incomplete, incorrect and changeable?
  2. Do you think people have failed to take into account the fallibility of macroeconomic theory when formulating economic policy?
  3. In particular, do you think this contributed to the failure to predict the financial crisis or was the extent of the shock unpredictable?

On a mobile device, follow this link instead.

PDF iconRead the paper, Justifying Empirical Macro-Econometric Evidence.

Download the slides, Justifying Empirical Macro-Econometric Evidence.


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12 responses

18 11 2011
Today’s sessions – Friday « Wiley Economics Online Conference

[…] The Wrap – Day 2 Keynote: Trends in Econometrics […]

18 11 2011
Muhammad Anees

Hello,

I am impressed by the authority of Dr. Hendry in this area of research since my MS in Econometrics.

I was eagerly waiting for this but unfortunattely, this format of video/slides does not run on my system. I would be glade to have it in other format, like the audio-format which ran well and the format from sladeshare type also ran well, if possible.

Thanks for your help.

18 11 2011
Anton Viesel

Sorry to hear that Muhammad and thanks for letting us know! We’ll try to put together an alternative format before the end of the day.

18 11 2011
Dr. Ruizan Mekvabidze

Dear Prof. Hendry, thank you for this lecture. Unfortunately in developing countries as Georgia the econometric approach is less in using as an important research tool in economics because economic education is not completed yet.
If you let me, I‘ll spread your lecture …

Dr. Ruizan Mekvabidze
Gori University,
Gori,
Georgia

18 11 2011
Keynotes – audio « Wiley Economics Online Conference

[…] Keynote: Trends in Econometrics, David Hendry […]

18 11 2011
Michael Hauser

I think econometrics is doing its best to resolve the problem of intrinsic and extrinsic closure wrt to simplifing models. Although these are criteria which are to be a applied to theories. According to Haavelmo(44) Etrica our econometric models are not designed to cover all the aspects of reality but to be useful.
So if we see models similar to theories we can test and refute a theory, which has to accepted then and theory has to be modified. Or, we think of usefulness then if e.g. forecasting/stability does not work out, then the model (and the underlying theory) is not useful.
In both cases the problem lies in building the economic theory and its relation to the reality(= data).

18 11 2011
Muhammad Anees

The best thing thoeristis in Economics have developed using Mathematical and Statistical tools is the Econometrics, which resolves many issues of concern to not only to Pure Economists but also the Researchers in other areas where economic reasoning was intended like Health Sciences (resulting in the emergence of Health Economomics) and Environmental Sciences (Environmental Economics). Econometrics does the job, economists need. Hence Econometrics is the backbone of much research economics at appied and empirical level, which try to prove theories work to predict the real worl. Unfortunately such research is no correct to stand by it tall, and it is not the failure of Econometrics predicting the theories are true, rather it is the real world changes which need theories to to be modified, hence no one can blame Econometrics. I would recommend when using Macroeconometrics, to use in a way that assumptions are not made and simulation type extensions are used to predict if other things could happen and allowing for such conditions like crisis which to some extent could be predicted if one could predict human and organizational behaviour. So the conclusion of the point, that macroeconometric has done its job everywhere, but it was the real world changes which has proved the models estimates for theories not so correct as wished.

18 11 2011
Aldona Zawojska

Some researchers state that in order to more fully understand forces creating financial and economic crises, more research into the role of greed is needed. Even a new economic term appeared: macro-greed.
Professor David Hendry in his today’s keynote lecture said: MACRO is quite different to MICRO, and suggested that we cannot use formula such as, for example: individual greed × number of economic agents = macro-greed.
So, my question addressed to professor Hendry is: Would formal economic models based on optimizing greedy behaviour by economic agents be useful to: (i) explain if factors such as greed may contribute to an economic crisis; (ii) predict an economic meltdown?

18 11 2011
The Wrap – Day 3 – thank you and goodbye! « Wiley Economics Online Conference

[…] Keynote – Hendry, Econometrics […]

19 11 2011
David Hendry

Greed is an excellent example for why macroeconomics differs from individual-based micro, namely interactions between people that are omitted in such theories. `Greed’ for almost everyone could be at a low level but is then affected by an upsurge in greed by (say) bankers and CEOs, so everyone’s greed is increased, leading to a new state of high greed. I am unaware of good measures of greed, though the very high ratios of executive pay to median earnings suggests it is rife. Inequality can be measured and may well contribute to crises.

21 11 2011
Statistics: Weekly Links « socialempirics

[…] David Hendry on current and future trends in econometrics […]

21 11 2011
Winning Comment – Day 3 « Wiley Economics Online Conference

[…] delighted to announce the winner of the third and final “comment of the day” award: Aldona Zawojska, who commented on David Hendry‘s paper Classifying Monetary […]




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